Low credit card penetration, inefficient supply chains, inhibitive customs & tax regulation and embryonic internet penetration do not bode well for online e-tailing in ASEAN. According to the UBS analysts, 2013/2014 was the inflection point for internet penetration and eCommerce in ASEAN. The region has reached its 'mobile moment', with the majority of traffic coming from mobile devices with the rollout of 3G, and more affordable devices. Thailand and the Philippines recorded the highest growth in the region, and Indonesia emerged as the market with most potential.
UBS’s analysis suggested that ASEAN had 199m internet users (32% penetration), rising to 294m (48%) between 2014 and 2017. The report was created with support of proprietary analysis, based on 'Big Data' algorithms, to model the market from a bottom-up perspective. UBS estimated B2C e-Commerce in the region grossed only US$0.5-1.1bn (0.2% of retail sales), but could increase at least fivefold by 2020, with opportunity set as high as US$35bn. Inclusion of all e-Commerce channels could multiply the overall market size.
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